The best record in the NFC through Week 9 belongs to… the Arizona Cardinals? No one predicted that ‒ not in a division with the defending NFL Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks and two-time NFC Championship runners-up San Francisco 49ers in the mix. How have the Cards raced out to a 7-1 record in 2014?

 

What has Arizona done to exceed preseason expectations? Can they sustain that success down the stretch? Let’s look at the factors that have propelled Arizona into the pole position.

Offseason Changes

In 2013, the Cardinals finished 10-6 under new head coach Bruce Arians, a five-win improvement on their 5-11 mark in 2012 under previous head coach . However, playing in a division with NFC powerhouses San Francisco and Seattle kept Arizona on the outside looking in, just missing the playoffs. Arians arrived in January 2013 from Indianapolis where he had served in 2012 as offensive coordinator and interim head coach, the latter while Chuck Pagano underwent treatment for cancer.

Heading into 2014, the Cardinals looked to have taken a step back after losing a number of starters to free agency or retirement, including right tackle and left guard , running back , slot receiver , defensive backs and , and inside linebacker . Further, starting ILB was suspended for the season due to a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

Arizona did add depth with former All-Pro cornerback , LB , center Ted Larson, tight end and kick returner Jr. However, their prize free agent signing was left tackle , the key piece in a renovation of the offensive line that Pro Football Focus rated the worst in the NFL last year.

The Cardinals also excelled in the draft, selecting safety , TE , defensive lineman , wide receiver , quarterback , and DL – all of whom have started at least one game this season or played a key reserve role.

Strength of Schedule

Through Week 8, the Cardinals had faced the of opponents per Pro Football Reference, trailing only San Francisco, Denver and Kansas City. Their only loss to date came on the road against the Broncos ( in Week 5).

Arizona is unbeaten at home thus far, besting San Diego ( in Week 1), the 49ers ( in Week 3), Washington ( in Week 6), and Philadelphia ( in Week 8). Their two road wins came against the Giants ( in Week 7) and the hapless Raiders in Week 7).

Now, at their halfway mark, the Cardinals’ résumé includes quality opponents ‒ the Chargers, 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys ‒ and they suffered their only defeat on the road against perhaps the best team in the NFL. But has Arizona’s on-field performance matched up with their lofty 7-1 record? With eight games still to play, can the Cardinals rightly be anointed the NFC’s best team?.

The Defense

Arizona runs a base 3-4 defense which is ranked 7th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) by Football Outsiders. DVOA is calculated by “[breaking] down every single NFL play and [comparing] a team’s performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average.”  In more traditional statistics, the Cardinals are 4th in at 19.5 points per game, and the NFL’s 4th-stingiest while allowing just 3.4 yards per attempt.

However, the Cardinals rank just 25th in limiting opponents’ at 7.0, while the NFL average is 6.5. This suggests they are keeping teams from scoring by shutting down the running game and forcing teams to throw against them.

That Arizona’s foes have been so efficient through the air is somewhat surprising, given that the Cardinals boast one of the most talented secondaries in the game. Two-time first-team All-Pro cornerback leads the unit, while former All-Pro mans the other cornerback spot. When deploying a nickel defense, Arizona utilizes slot corner who has played well despite limited opportunities. Free safety and strong safety on the team, respectively, in tackles this season.

If Arizona’s struggles can’t be blamed on the coverage personnel, we can find a big clue in the team’s total lack of pass rush. Only one NFL team (St. Louis) has fewer sacks than the seven logged so far by the Cardinals. For comparison, Buffalo has amassed a league-leading 28 sacks. Injuries have been a significant factor for Arizona’s front defenders. Defensive tackle is out for the year with a torn ACL sustained in the pre-season, and defensive end/outside linebacker went on season-ending injured reserve after Week 2 with a concussion. Defensive end has also missed games with a knee injury.

Another factor in the struggles of the pass defense is defensive coordinator ’ penchant for the blitz. In 2013, the Cardinals led the NFL by blitzing on almost half of their defensive plays (49.2%). They have continued that emphasis this season (41.8%, 4th-highest in the NFL) and last weekend against the Eagles they launched blitzes on 24 of 40 pass plays. Blitzes can help the secondary when defenders get to the quarterback or hurry throws, but the Cardinals are not providing enough pressure ‒ allowing opposing signal callers time to find holes in the coverage.

By far, the best thing the Cardinals have done defensively this season is generate takeaways: 14 in all (tied for 5th in the NFL) including 10 interceptions (tied for 3rd in the league).

The Offense

Arizona ranks 25th in offensive DVOA, 30th in with 3.4 YPA (NFL average 4.2), and 23rd in passing with 7.0 YPA (NFL average 7.3). They’re in the middle of the pack in scoring, ranking 15th in the league with 24.0 points per game. As with the defense, the Cardinals have been hit by injuries on this side of the ball. Starting quarterback has finally recovered from a shoulder nerve issue that kept him sidelined from Week 3 through Week 6. Running back and wide receiver have also been hobbled.

Most of the Cardinals’ damage has been done through the air, with 14 of their 19 offensive touchdowns coming on the arms of their quarterbacks (Palmer, backup and the rookie Thomas). According to the , Palmer has been the 8th-best signal caller in the league this year with a 99.3 rating. Stanton has logged a 75.4 rating and Thomas, despite being 1-for-8 in pass attempts this year, has a 108.9 rating because that one completion went for 81 yards and a touchdown.

However, advanced metrics do not fully mesh with that data. Pro Football Focus now has Palmer ranked 13th among 36 quarterbacks that have taken at least 25% of their team’s snaps, but prior to Sunday’s game against Dallas he placed just 22nd on that list. Stanton fares even worse, ranking 25th. Arizona certainly has no shortage of targets, with (an 8-time Pro Bowler), deep threat (a team-high 16.9 yards per catch), 5th-round draft pick , and running back (2nd on the team with 32 receptions).

Ellington also comprises most of the Cardinals’ running attack, with more than 70% of the (149 of 212) and over three-quarters of their (559 of 724). Depth is a big issue for the ground game, with Taylor’s injury (2 games missed thus far) and suspended for the season after a domestic abuse incident. The offensive line, while improved from EPA SuperFund hazardous waste cleanup site status, is still a sub-par unit (only 10 NFL teams have lower run-blocking grades, per Pro Football Focus).

Special Teams

So how are the Cardinals 15th in scoring? Help has certainly come from rookie placekicker . After the Cardinals suffered through a mediocre 2013 by , Catanzaro won the job with a strong training camp and has not let up. He’s a perfect 16-for-16 in field goals ( have split the uprights more often this year) and he hasn’t missed an extra point in 18 tries. Catanzaro has had just as big an impact on field position: 28 of his 44 kickoffs have been for touchbacks and, in combination with Arizona’s coverage specialists, they have limited their opponents to an average offensive starting point of 19.3 yards in front of the end zone, 5th best in the league and a significant improvement from last season when the Cardinals ranked just 21st.

, Jr. has taken over Arizona’s kick return duties from last year’s primary returners (kickoffs) and  Peterson (punts). Peterson, despite his occasional brilliance, had a dismal 6.0 punt return average that ranked in the bottom five among punt returners last season. Arenas was in the bottom five in kick returns as well, averaging just 21.3 yards per runback. Ginn has improved the punt return game, averaging 12.6 yards per return with one returned for a touchdown. Meanwhile Ginn has actually taken a step backwards in the kickoff return game, only averaging 16.3 yards per return, though he’s only had 6 runback chances this season.

The Road Ahead

Arizona is fortunate to have banked so many quality wins early, as the Cardinals still have road games remaining against all three of their division rivals ‒ Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis ‒ plus Atlanta. Their remaining home games are against St. Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, and Seattle. Despite Dallas’ loss to Washington in Week 8, the Cowboys should have proven a stiff test for this Cardinals club this weekend. However, with starting at quarterback in place of the injured , the Cardinals were able to focus on shutting down running back ‒ which they did in limiting him to just 79 yards on 19 carries. The schedule definitely gets tougher from here.

The Cardinals have been fortunate to start the season 7-1, taking care of business at home and performing better than expected on the road. But they do not appear to be a dominant team capable of holding the #1 seed in the NFC. Offensively, they are relying heavily on an excellent kicking game. Arizona’s success can be attributed to a quality defense despite a rash of injuries and, while they can improve further with health, they need to find a stronger pass rush to help out the secondary. However, getting out to a hot start has increased their chances of making the playoffs this season and Arizona is well-positioned to cause problems in the division and conference for the rest of the season.

Dan Graulich loves Earl Thomas and the Seattle Seahawks but he writes about the NFL for SoSH Football Central, having a keen interest in fake punt returns and the scramble drill.

Dan Graulich

Dan Graulich is New Jersey born and raised who moved to Maine for 20 years, fell further in love with the Red Sox, and moved back to New Jersey recently.He is a proud graduate of Clarion University of Pennsylvania with a BS degree in two majors (accounting & management) he has never used.He has a lovely wife who tolerates his sports addictions and a shih-tzu/poodle mix named Katie.He's never met a board or card game he didn't like and is a strong contributor at trivia contests.

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