SEC Permanent Crossover Games: Unfair?

“Who did you play?” is always a consideration in the polls and rankings. As the presumptive best-conference in the country, the SEC matchups matter most of all in determining who gets to play in the National Championship Game. Are the SEC permanent crossover games affecting some teams’ ability to win titles?

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Auburn lost to Georgia this season, all but ending the Tigers’ hopes of being chosen for the inaugural College Football Playoff. Known as “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry,” the teams have met 118 times since 1892. Historically, it’s been a competitive battle – each team has won 55 times, along with 8 draws.

This game is also one of seven annual SEC permanent crossover games in which two teams from opposite divisions meet each year. The others: Alabama-Tennessee, Arkansas-Missouri, LSU-Florida, Mississippi State-Kentucky, Ole Miss-Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M-South Carolina. (Prior to 2014, Arkansas played South Carolina, and Texas A&M played Missouri in 2012 and 2013.)

When the SEC consisted of 12 schools, a team’s 8-game conference schedule had a 5-2-1 format: five divisional games, two rotating non-divisional games, and the crossover game. After the conference expanded to 14 teams, keeping the 8-team schedule meant eliminating one rotating non-divisional game. The current format is 6-1-1: six division games, the crossover game, and a rotating inter-division game, meaning each team now only plays two conference games against the other division. The crossover games don’t rotate, which levies a different amount of fairness to each pairing. But how unfair is it?

To find out, I compared the final division standings since the SEC started divisional play in 1992 to see how those divisions would have fared without the crossover game. This eliminates the crossover and presumes a 7-game conference schedule. The goal: to determine whether any division titles would have changed hands and, if so, how many:

 

SEC East – Yearly Order of Finish

	Actual	Actual	w/o Crossover	w/o Crossover
Year	1st Place	2nd Place	1st Place	2nd Place
1992	Florida 6-2*	Georgia 6-2	Tennessee 5-2*	Georgia 5-2 Florida 5-2
1993	Florida 7-1	Tennessee 6-1-1	Florida 6-1*	Tennessee 6-1
1994	Florida 7-1	Tennessee 5-3	Florida 6-1	Tennessee 5-2
1995	Florida 8-0	Tennessee 7-1	Florida 7-0	Tennessee 6-1
1996	Florida 8-0	Tennessee 7-1	Florida 7-0	Tennessee 6-1
1997	Tennessee 7-1	Georgia 6-2 Florida 6-2	Tennessee 6-1*	Florida 6-1 Georgia 6-1
1998	Tennessee 8-0	Florida 7-1	Tennessee 7-0	Florida 6-1
1999	Florida 7-1	Tennessee 6-2	Florida 6-1	Tennessee 5-2 Georgia 5-2
2000	Florida 7-1	Georgia 5-3 S. Carolina 5-3 Tennessee 5-3	Florida 6-1	Georgia 5-2
2001	Tennessee 7-1	Florida 6-2	Tennessee 6-1	Georgia 5-2 Florida 5-2 S. Carolina 5-2
2002	Georgia 7-1	Florida 6-2	Florida 6-1*	Georgia 6-1
2003	Georgia 6-2*	Tennessee 6-2 Florida 6-2	Georgia 5-2*	Tennessee 5-2 Florida 5-2
2004	Tennessee 7-1	Georgia 6-2	Tennessee 6-1*	Georgia 6-1
2005	Georgia 6-2	S. Carolina 5-3 Florida 5-3	Georgia 6-1	Florida 5-2
2006	Florida 7-1	Tennessee 5-3	Florida 6-1	Tennessee 4-3
2007	Tennessee 6-2	Georgia 6-2	Tennessee 6-1	Georgia 5-2 Florida 5-2
2008	Florida 7-1	Georgia 6-2	Florida 6-1	Georgia 5-2
2009	Florida 8-0	Georgia 4-4 Tennessee 4-4	Florida 7-0	Tennessee 4-3
2010	S. Carolina 5-3	Florida 4-4	S. Carolina 5-2	Florida 4-3
2011	Georgia 7-1	S. Carolina 6-2	S. Carolina 6-1*	Georgia 6-1
2012	Georgia 7-1*	Florida 7-1	Georgia 6-1*	Florida 6-1
2013	Missouri 7-1	S. Carolina 6-2	Missouri 6-1	Georgia 5-2 S. Carolina 5-2
2014	Missouri 7-1	Georgia 6-2	Missouri 6-1	Georgia 5-2

2nd-place ties listed in order of tiebreaker
* Won 1st place tiebreaker
^ Moved up via another team’s post-season ban

 

SEC West – Yearly Order of Finish

	Actual	Actual	w/o Crossover	w/o Crossover
Year	1st Place	2nd Place	1st Place	2nd Place
1992	Alabama 8-0	Ole Miss 5-3	Alabama 7-0	Ole Miss 5-2
1993	Alabama 5-2-1^	Arkansas 3-4-1^	Alabama 5-2^	LSU 3-4^
1994	Alabama 8-0	Miss. St 5-3^	Alabama 7-0	Miss. St. 4-3^
1995	Arkansas 6-2	Auburn 5-3	Arkansas 5-2	LSU 4-2-1^
1996	Alabama 6-2*	LSU 6-2	Alabama 6-1*	LSU 6-1
1997	Auburn 6-2*	LSU 6-2	Auburn 5-2*	LSU 5-2
1998	Miss. St. 6-2*	Arkansas 6-2	Miss. St. 6-1	Arkansas 5-2
1999	Alabama 7-1	Miss. St 6-2	Alabama 7-0	Miss. St 5-2
2000	Auburn 6-2	LSU 5-3	Auburn 5-2*	LSU 5-2
2001	LSU 5-3*	Auburn 5-3	LSU 5-2	Alabama 4-3
2002	Arkansas 5-3^*	Auburn 5-3^ LSU 5-3^	Auburn 5-2^	Arkansas 4-3^
2003	LSU 7-1*	Ole Miss 7-1	LSU 7-0	Ole Miss 6-1
2004	Auburn 8-0	LSU 6-2	Auburn 7-0	LSU 5-2
2005	LSU 7-1	Auburn 7-1	LSU 6-1*	Auburn 6-1
2006	Arkansas 7-1	Auburn 6-2 LSU 6-2	LSU 6-1*	Arkansas 6-1 Auburn 6-1
2007	LSU 6-2	Auburn 5-3	LSU 5-2*	Auburn 5-2
2008	Alabama 8-0	Ole Miss 5-3	Alabama 7-0	Ole Miss 5-2
2009	Alabama 8-0	LSU 5-3	Alabama 7-0	LSU 5-2
2010	Auburn 8-0	Arkansas 6-2 LSU 6-2	Auburn 7-0	Arkansas 5-2 LSU 5-2
2011	LSU 8-0	Alabama 7-1	LSU 7-0	Alabama 6-1
2012	Alabama 7-1	LSU 6-2 Texas A&M 6-2	Alabama 6-1*	LSU 6-1
2013	Auburn 7-1*	Alabama 7-1	Auburn 6-1*	Alabama 6-1
2014	Alabama 7-1	Miss. St. 6-2	Alabama 6-1	Miss. St. 5-2

2nd-place ties listed in order of tiebreaker
* Won 1st place tiebreaker
^ Moved up via another team’s post-season ban

 

On five occasions in four different seasons, the division champions would have been different without the crossover game:

	Actual	Actual	w/o Crossovers	w/o Crossovers
Year	East	West	East	West
1992	Florida	Alabama	Tennessee	Alabama
2002	Georgia	Arkansas	Florida	Auburn
2006	Florida	Arkansas	Florida	LSU
2011	Georgia	LSU	S. Carolina	LSU

 

On net, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn and LSU all add one title game appearance, while Georgia and Arkansas each lose two.

Right away, we see that the inaugural SEC East Championship (1992), would have gone to Tennessee. The Volunteers actually went 5-3 and finished third after losing its crossover game against Alabama. Florida and Georgia, both 6-2, won their crossovers against LSU and Auburn, respectively. Without crossovers, all three would have finished 5-2 and Tennessee would have won the tiebreaker against Florida and Georgia, having beaten both teams head-to-head. The Vols would have played Alabama in the SEC title game. Instead, Tennessee fired head coach following the season after dropping his 7th in a row to the Crimson Tide.

In 2002, both divisions would have had different winners. In the East, Florida would have avoided LSU and finished 6-1. This would have left the Gators tied with Georgia, whom they beat head to head. In the West, Auburn would have avoided a loss to Georgia, while Arkansas would not have had the advantage of beating a 5-7 South Carolina team. In actuality, the two teams tied and Arkansas won the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Would have been fired so quickly had the Gators reached (and perhaps won) the SEC title game? Meanwhile, much-maligned would have added a third conference championship game appearance to his résumé.

In 2006, LSU would have jumped from third to first. Arkansas again won the division, with a crossover win over 8-5 (3-5 SEC) South Carolina. Without crossovers, LSU and Auburn would have avoided losses to Florida and Georgia, respectively, and pulled into a three-way tie with Arkansas. The deadlock would have been broken by the fifth tie-breaker, record against common non-divisional opponents. LSU and Arkansas both beat Tennessee, while Auburn had no common non-divisional opponent. It would then have reverted to the head-to-head game between LSU and Arkansas, which LSU won. Florida was a juggernaut that season, so it’s doubtful whether LSU would have won the title game.

Lastly, in 2011 the Ole Ball Coach would have made it two title games in a row if the Gamecocks could have avoided Arkansas. They would have tied Georgia, who beat a -less Auburn team in ’s penultimate season. South Carolina held the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win over the Bulldogs.

Georgia eventually lost the 2011 SEC title game, 42-10. Would the Gamecocks have been  more of an obstacle to LSU than the speed bump Georgia presented?

The SEC’s crossover arrangement is sometimes unfair, but perhaps not overwhelmingly so. Five division title changes over 46 divisional seasons aren’t very many (10.9%). There are also a number of teams that would have moved up in the bowl-selection pecking order, with their fans heading to a more desirable destination. However, with so much at stake ‒ BCS berths, other bowl games, coaching jobs, and division bragging rights ‒ the downstream impacts could have been significant. For the five teams that lost a division crown based on SEC permanent crossover games, their players and fans can only wonder what might have been.

Andrew Pina still roots for USF on Saturdays but finds the time to cover why Thanksgiving is the biggest obstacle to an 8-team playoff,  LSU’s running game and Kansas State’s title challenge for Football Central University.